OTR34-Housing Prices to CRASH 15% Christian Briggs Warns - On The Record with Christian Briggs

Christian Briggs, host of On The Record, pulls no punches as he connects the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes to a looming housing market crash. He explains that the Fed’s moves are driven by bond‑market signals, not by any ability to tame commodity‑side inflation, and that higher rates are already inflating construction loan costs. Briggs warns that the 10‑year Treasury yield’s recent dip may be a short‑lived sigh of relief, while the market still prices in two more hikes—an outlook he says could choke credit, push mortgage rates toward historic highs, and ultimately stall the 20 % of the economy that housing represents.The episode dives deep into commodity inflation, especially oil, and how a potential dip to the low‑80s could ease core CPI pressure. Briggs critiques the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, for abandoning forward guidance, noting that even Goldman Sachs and Bank of America analysts are urging a pause to avoid feeding inflation further. He also flags the Treasury’s shift away from selling 20‑year bonds as a signal that short‑term yields may soon fall.Listeners get a clear roadmap of the data points Briggs watches: bond‑market trends, Treasury policy, and the softening of core inflation margins across manufacturers and retailers. He argues that without a rate‑freeze, construction financing will become prohibitively expensive, stalling new builds and dragging the broader economy toward recession. The episode ends with Briggs’ bold forecast that, despite the risk, America’s tech, aerospace, and defense sectors will keep the engine running, but only if policymakers heed the bond market and let rates stabilize.

Categories: Money